Squad Numbers

Time and time again, pundits when questioned about the struggles of any given team seem to come back to the same conclusion about why said struggles are occurring, they don’t have a 15-20 goal a season striker to put the ball in the back of the net. Whether its Arsenal at this current moment in time just after Gabriel Jesus missed an absolute sitter in the North London derby (last season Arsenal had 3 non strikers who all contributed 14+ goals in the league) or whether it be Manchester City from 2019/20 to 2021/22 (where they won 2/3 league titles finishing runner up in the one season they didn’t win, whilst also winning 2 Carabao cups). The discourse seems to be endless. But is a 20 goal a season number 9 actually essential, lets see.

Now, first of all, what is always envisaged when the concept of a 20 goal striker is brought into our minds is a big, powerful and dominant player who can out jump and out muscle any defender they come up against, infact, some of the most effective strikers in premier league history have been quite the opposite. Sergio Aguero, who scored 184 goals for Manchester City in 275 games for the club, was only 5’8, his game revolved around very intelligent movement in and around the box, whilst also having the auspicious ability to score from anywhere. Meanwhile, Jamie Vardy, who led Leicester City to a miraculous Premier League title in 2015/16, was a fairly small, nippy striker who would dart in behind countless times on his way to finishing inside the top 5 goalscorers in the league 4 times out of 5 between 2015/16 and 2019/20. Other examples of this profile of player include Danny Ings, Roberto Firmino, Wayne Rooney and more.

So before we’ve even started picking apart the ideology that 20 goal a season strikers are vital, we have proved that the picture that the believers of this have in their mind isn’t actually the reality behind it.

Over the past 4 premier league season, the title winners have only had a striker that has scored more than 20 goals once, that being Erling Haaland with 36 for Manchester City in 2022/23. Now, you look and that and think, well that’s that dealt with, you don’t need a proven goalscorer. Well actually over the last 13 premier league seasons, the title winners have had a striker that has scored 20 or more goals 9 times.

The stats in the last paragraph show that there has been a definite tactical change in the premier league over the last few years, this is all down to the arrival of a certain Pep Guardiola. Guardiola was well known around Europe for his rock and roll possession football which had taken La Liga and the Bundesliga by storm with Barcelona and Bayern Munich. At Barcelona, he famously played Lionel Messi as a “false nine”, meaning that he would start in the typical 9’s role, then drop into little pockets of space where you would usually see a number 10 play. Messi played in this role throughout the 2011/12 season, where he scored the most goals of any player in all competitions in a single season, 73, yes, Seventy Three. This tactical revolution was something which had only ever used before by Johan Cruyff (ironically at Barcelona, with Guardiola in the team as a player) so when Guardiola used it to such effect it took the footballing world by surprise.

There was scepticism when Guardiola first came to England to manage Manchester City over whether his style would work in English football. That aged well didn’t it. Since joining City, Guardiola has won 5 premier leagues, 4 league cups, 2 FA cups and a Champions League. He has employed that same false 9 system which worked so well at Barcelona. First of all with Sergio Aguero and then Gabriel Jesus. During Guardiola’s time at City, they have had a striker who has contributed 20 or more goals in half of those seasons. A pretty small amount for something which is apparently so critical right?

This tactical revolution has spread throughout the league as well. Jurgen Klopp’s Liverpool which have produced swashbuckling football over the years have had Roberto Firmino to thank for playing as the selfless false 9 to great effect. Firmino constantly dropping into deeper positions allowed wingers Mane and Salah to make runs in behind into more central areas, greatly contributing to their goal tallies. At no point during Klopp’s rein at the Liverpool have they had an out and out striker who has scored more than 20 goals.

One of the facts which is so incredibly simple which is overlooked in and amongst all the tactical changes is the fact that not many teams actually have a 20 goal a season striker. Last season, there were only 3 strikers that scored 20 or more goals, the season before that there were none, the year before that there was just one. This shows that while there are one or two of these players usually in a season, they are actually few and far between. For something that seen to be so vital to a teams success, they aren’t very common. Strikers such as Callum Wilson, Ollie Watkins and Alexsander Mitrovic are seen as the kind of goal scoring strikers that you need in your team, but none of them scored 20 goals last season, only Wilson scored more than 15.

For the last few years, the narrative around Brighton has been that they don’t have a goal scoring striker, and are wasteful in their chances, in fact, last season Brighton scored 72 goals from 73.3 XG which isn’t a terrible difference. Meanwhile, Brighton have been superb in that time, finishing 6th in the Premier League, playing incredible attacking football in one of their most successful periods in their history. Their strikers last season were Danny Welbeck, Evan Ferguson and Dennis Undav, none of which scored more than 6 goals in the league. Elsewhere in the team, Alexis Mac Allister was their top scorer, with 10 goals.

There is another side to this argument, that having a striker who is reliable in the box, who has good movement, creates clear goal scoring avenues for the team. If you as a team have that character in their, you can be confident in playing the ball straight up to him, more directly instead of holding slow build up patterns to manoeuvre the ball further up the pitch. Having this player also means that other players are more confident to play crosses into the box from deep as they know that there is someone in there to put it away. This means that if you are struggling in a game, perhaps being pressed effectively by the opposition, it takes less work to get the ball into goal scoring opportunities. Manchester City’s 4-1 victory versus Arsenal last season is the perfect example of this:

Here Arsenal press City high in their own area, Stones decides to play it long up to Haaland.

Haaland uses his strength to hold off the defender and bring the ball under control.

Haaland then plays it thought to De Bruyne who eventually runs through to score.

The one key thing which you may or may not have noticed about the above example, is that Erling Haaland, a player lauded for his goals and being a dream for pundits who don’t have much to say, was the provider, he created that goal with his strength and link up play. Even Haaland has to do much more than just score goals.

In conclusion, there are many different ways to play football. You can play with a big target man up front, you can play with a fast nippy player to run in behind, or you can play with no one up front at all. The main factor in a teams cohesion, and how the 11 players fit together on the pitch, not just one. Of course having a striker who scores time and time again is extremely beneficial to any team, but by no means is it essential.