Squad Numbers

The day is the 11th of July 2021, approximately 4 minutes past 8, Luke Shaw has just driven England into the lead of the Euro 2020 final against Italy, at Wembley. An entire nation was sent into euphoria, football was coming home. Almost 3 hours later, an entire nation was sent into misery, as Bukayo Saka had his penalty saved, leading to Italy becoming champions of Europe, football was coming Rome. Following this game, there was much debate about the reasons for the loss, was it the bringing on of the 3 young players without kicking a ball to take the penalties? Was it the negative tactics? Was it the lack of a red card for Giorgio Chielleni for his assault-like pull on Saka? Or, was it the fact that England scored too early, which resulted in them playing conservatively for the rest of the game?

Almost always in finals, the team leading towards the end of the game has to soak up significant pressure towards the end, and sometimes that results in goals being conceded and the result being turned on its head. This had led to the widespread idea that perhaps, scoring first in any game, particularly finals where the stakes are so high, scoring first can be detrimental to your chances of winning the game. There is a cognitive element to this, as if you get into the lead in an incredibly important game, as a player you may start to imagine lifting the trophy, and this can lower your concentration, and enhance your nerves, as the fear of possibly making a mistake takes its toll, ironically, making a mistake more likely.

However, it is just not true. Statistically, if you score first in any game of football, you are more likely to win, that’s simple maths. In each of the last 10 Champions league finals, the team that scored first won, and in the last 6 of them, the opposing team didn’t even score a goal in reply. Meanwhile, in the last 7 World Cup finals, the team scoring first has won 6 of them. Finals are often cagey, with teams not wanting to take much risk in order to ensure that they don’t concede, this means that any goal that is scored is likely to make the difference, with many finals finishing 1-0.

Conversely, there has been an increase in attack minded coaches in international football, which has historically lagged behind club football in that regard, with defensive security being prioritised. This could lead to higher scoring finals. This is shown as the last 2 World Cup finals have finished 3-3 and 4-2 respectively. This could mean that as games are becoming more open, the first goal may become less vital.

The other aspect of this which we haven’t spoken about is embodied in the quote: “They’ve scored too early”. This can be more respected, as when teams take the lead early on in finals, they play conservatively for the rest of the game, with the opposition pushing forward more to try and equalise. This means that the team that scores early will often be on the back foot in games, lacking control of the match. Furthermore, if the team that scored early does concede at any point, the momentum will be against them, and it can be hard for them to regain the upper hand, as perhaps they would have already made negative substitutions in order to hold on to what they have, or the players will be stuck in the defensive mindset that they have got themselves into. Teams scoring early means that they are likely to try and defend for longer, meaning that the ball is nearer to your goal for longer, increasing your chance of conceding, it’s simple.

The answer to all of this is that it is not a bad thing to score first, it is quite literally the opposite. However, if you do score first, you have got to keep going, it is almost impossible to defend for almost 90 minutes. Go and get the second goal, and then the third. Perhaps, if England had kept on going after 8:04 on the 11th of July 2021, football would have come home.