Squad Numbers

Ah yes, the ever un-glamarous, yet quite calming area of the Premier League, 11th-14th. Teams that finish here are stable Premier League sides, who can take solace in that, but are always thinking, next year, maybe next year we can push on into the top half. Let’s see who will have that joy this year:

11th: Brighton

The hype around Brighton has calmed down over the past season. They were viewed as one of the most exciting clubs to watch and follow at the start of the year, they were competing in Europe, defeating giants such as Ajax, and in the Premier League, they were third in the table after gameweek 6. After that though, things got more tricky. Their squad struggled to cope with the extra fixture demands that come with European football, and injuries kicked in to derail their season.

Roberto De Zerbi, the man who had been hailed as the next big thing, suddenly didn’t look like that at all, and he publicly criticised the clubs owners, calling out their transfer strategy and their over reliance on young players. De Zerbi’s tactics though, had gone stale, and he was mostly to blame for their drop off towards the end of last year.

Their squad remains extremely talented, and new manager Fabian Hurzeler has an exciting job ahead of him. Hurzeler is an interesting manager, he’s extremely young to manage at this level, only 31 years of age, but that shouldn’t define him.

It is his tactical ideas which are most interesting. Hurzeler plays a 3-4-3 system, but it is completely unique. out of possession it transitions to a 5-4-1, as you would expect, but in possession, they push one of their centre backs into a central midfield position, this is where it gets interesting, because you would expect that that centre back would play alongside a more natural midfielder creating a double pivot, but that’s not the case, the centre back sits in there by himself, as the two centre midfielders ahead of him push forward into the number 10 positions, this is perfectly illustrated as Marcel Hartel, one of those central midfielders, was St Pauli’s (Hurzeler’s last club) top goalscorer last season, with 17 goals in 33 games.

The positions of the wingers and the wing backs are fluid, with one staying wide and the other supporting inside. This creates a very odd in possession shape, it reads something like a 2-1-2-5. As you would expect, a Hurzeler team will look to keep possession, last season, St Pauli, averaged 57% possession across the season, the second highest of any team in their division. They also played the most short passes of any team in their league.

I think that Hurzeler will be a massive success at Brighton, he is more of a yes man than De Zerbi was, and will buy into the model that Brighton have of buying young players, developing them and then selling them on for large fees. However, his tactical style is so extreme, it may struggle at first in the Premier League. I can just imagine Lewis Dunk stepping up into midfield, slipping on the ball, and the opposition running through 3 vs 2 on Brighton’s goal. I predict a difficult start to life for Hurzeler, before really picking up form towards the end of the season.

Brighton have been very active in the transfer market. They took advantage of the PSR storm at the end of June, picking up Yankuba Minteh from Newcastle for around £30 million. Minteh is an exceptionally talented player, he is a 20 year old right winger who was on loan at Feyenoord last season, where he picked up 15 G/A in 17 starts. Minteh will add to Brightons already stacked wide areas, where they have the likes of Ibrahim Osman (also a new signing), Kaoru Mitoma, Simon Adingra, Solly March and Julio Enciso.

They have also added Mats Wieffer, who was also at Feyenoord last season, for a similar fee to Minteh. Wieffer is an exceptionally talented player, and not a prospect for the future, he’s ready to contribute now. the 24 year old plays as a midfielder, and can be deployed as a number 6 or number 8, but for Brighton it’s likely he’ll be used as one of the advanced midfielders, he is aggressive out of possession, averaging just under 5 tackles and interceptions per 90 last season, ranking him ahead of the likes of Rodri and even Declan Rice. When he gets on the ball, Wieffer looks forward, and has a great eye for a pass, he could prove to be a quality signing for Brighton will be a key player for them this season.

They have though lost Pascal Gross to Dortmund, which is a huge loss, Gross has been integral to them ever since they were promoted. Gross created the fourth most chances of any Premier League player last season, whilst playing at right back at times, and ranked ahead of the likes of James Maddison and Douglas Luiz.

However, Brigton’s squad is strong, and they should be able to cope without him. They are filled with top prospects, if Hurzeler can get a tune out of Evan Ferguson when he returns from injury, then they have one of the most exciting strikers in the world on their hands, whilst prospects such as Carlos Baleba, Simon Adingra and Valentin Barco could explode this season.

Brighton are going to unpredictable this season, they will be an entertaining watch no matter what, even if it comes to the detriment of results at times, which is why I don’t have them moving significantly back up the table from last season.

ONE TO WATCH: Carlos Baleba

It feels as if Baleba could be one of the players to benefit from Hurzeler’s arrival most. the 20 year old was criticised by Roberto De Zerbi last year, with the Italian saying that “Baleba is not yet ready to play at this level” after he subbed him off at half time in their 1-1 draw with Crystal Palace. De Zerbi did after praise his potential, but the fact remains, that is not a very confidence inspiring thing to hear as a young player in a new country.

Baleba showed signs of the potential that he has last season, he is aggressive off the ball, averaging 3 tackles per 90, more than 99% of other Premier League midfielders. He also possess great power when driving with the ball. The technical side of his game isn’t fully refined, but it is clear to see that it is growing, and will grow.

A manager in Hurzeler who will want Baleba to play further forward could help him grow into a more rounded player, and with Billy Gilmour likely to leave the club, this could be the year for Baleba to seize his spot in the team.

12th: Everton

Off the pitch, Everton are a mess, their takeover which has been touted for years now has failed to go through time and time again, and they have suffered points deductions for breaking the Premier League’s PSR rules (Profit and Sustainability). All whilst they club are preparing for a massive change, moving stadium from Goodison Park to the “Everton Stadium”, creative naming guys, well done. On the pitch however, they have been solid and dependable under Sean Dyche. Without their total 8 points deducted last season, they would have finished 11th, on 48 points, for a club in crisis off the pitch, that’s a great achievement.

You know what you are gonna get from a Sean Dyche team, they’ll pepper your box at every opportunity, thundering crosses into the box for their giants to knock on, and for someone, anyone to cram it over the line. They will be compact in defense, and sit off you, making for a very uncomfortable experience.

Except, that’s not what Everton are under Dyche, they have evolved. Yes, they are still direct in attack, they attempted 81 long balls per game last season, the most of any team in the league, but they do not just sit off you and wait for something to happen, they press high, and make it uncomfortable for you that way. Last season, Everton had 32 shots which were created from a defensive action (classified as a tackle or clearance).

A perfect example of Everton’s high press comes from their game against Man City at Goodsion Park last season:

Here you can see City playing out from the back, and Everton have committed 7 players forward in the press, against the best team world in the world. (Mykolenko is the 7th player, he’s just out of shot) Every single Everton player’s body language is positive, going towards the ball, with an intent to with it back.

They regain possession (Off Rodri nontheless), play it forward quickly, Mcneil plays it across, and Harrison taps it home to give Everton the lead.

Everton are a much more progressive and positive team than people give them credit for, and are very different to Dyche’s Burnley.

They have got issues to sort out though, they need to improve their goal scoring, especially from set pieces. They scored only 40 goals last season, the second lowest of any team, and 50% of those goals were from set pieces. Now, it’s good thing to be effective from set pieces, but you need more than that to be successful over a course of a whole season. It’s a similar thing to what I said about Arsenal, with other teams beginning to realise about the importance of set pieces, Everton’s advantage in that area may diminish, and they may be left as a team that can’t score.

It has been a mixed bag in the transfer window for Everton so far, in order to comply with PSR, they were forced to sell Ben Godfrey to Atalanta and Lewis Dobbin to Aston Villa, whilst Tim Iroegbunam came the other way, in the midst of the strange and inhumane trading of academy players (that’s another blog in itself). The biggest loss though, is that of Amadou (not A… I’ve made that joke already) Onana, who also departed to Aston Villa for around £50 million. Onana will be huge loss, as he was perfect for Dyche, tall, strong and loves a tackle.

Everton have been active in making signings themselves though, Jesper Lindstrom has arrived on loan from Napoli. Lindstrom endured a tough season last year, making 22 Serie A appearances, only 2 of them from the start. He could be a great signing for Everton though, he is a 24 years old versatile attacking midfielder who is capable of playing on either wing as well, this could prove invaluable for Everton as they may struggle to provide Sean Dyche with squad depth due to their financial issues. Lindstrom isn’t the tallest or most physical player, so on the surface he doesn’t seem the ideal Dyche player, but he is direct and works hard out of possession, he is the type of player that would do very well in that role that Abdoulaye Doucoure has made his own in the last couple of years, as a box crashing number 10.

Iliman Ndiaye has also arrived from Marseille to strengthen them up front, whilst the marquee Jake O’Brien has joined from Lyon for around £20 million. O’Brien is possibly the most Dyche player you will ever see, he’s a 6’5, physical centre-back who dominates opponents, and is a massive threat from set pieces. James Tarkowski is a stole-wart of that Everton defence, and one of Dyche’s must trusted players, but the though of an O’Brien/Branthwaite centre-back partnership is frightening.

Everton will continue to be effective this season, as every Sean Dyche team always is, but don’t be surprised if they turn a few heads and people start to appreciate, they are a more attractive team to watch than they are given credit. Everton fans will be glad to have a season of relative stability on the pitch, but quite frankly, don’t predict anything to do with their fortunes off the pitch, because it’s a circus, and a baffling one at that.

ONE TO WATCH: James Garner

Garner has become one of Dyche’s most trusted players at Everton, he featured in 37/38 Premier League games last season, starting 34 of those games. He has featured all over the pitch for Everton, playing in central midfield, off the right and off the left. No matter the game, Dyche tries to find a way to get him in. With Onana leaving, Garner may take on extra responsibility in that midfield. He’s a tenacious player, which Dyche will like, but he also posseses great technical prowess and he could establish himself as one of Everton’s most important players this season.

13th: Nottingham Forest

It’s impossible what to expect from Nottingham Forest, their return to the Premier League over the past two years has been entertaining and at times baffling. Every transfer window so far for Forest since their return has been insane, with a plethora of signings made, a lot of them being failures, but the odd one turning out to be a steal. Deals for players such as Jonjo Shelvey, Emmanuel Dennis and Lewis O’Brien have been total failures, whilst deals for Danillo, Murillo and Callum Hudson-Odoi have been steals. It speaks to a club without a coherent structure, and a culture of sacking recruitment personnel hasn’t helped build a coherent squad. However, this summer has been different (touch-wood).

If you ignore the PSR frenzy which resulted in Elliot Anderson joining the club for around £35 million, which was a massively inflated fee (even though he is a good player), Forest have been smart with their recruitment.

Nikola Milenkovic, a 26 year old centre-back has joined from Fiorentina. Milenkovic is a giant, standing at 6’4 ft, he is a proven player at european level, playing in the Fiorentina team which made it to two consecutive Europa Conference League finals. Forest were in need of centre-backs with Moussa Niakhate leaving for Lyon, so Milenkovic is a solid signing for them.

Jota Silva and Carlos Miguel have also joined the club to increase depth in the attacking and goalkeeping positions respectively.

Forest’s squad doesn’t need tearing up though, their first choice team is full of quality, and much better than just a team that would be fighting relegation. A team of: Sels, Williams, Milenkovic, Murillo, Aina, Sangare, Danilo, Gibbs-White, Hudson-Odoi, Elanga and Wood is quality.

Whilst Nuno wasn’t spectacular when he came into Forest to replace Steve Cooper, he got the job done, and his main issues were set pieces and finding his best team(which has been an issue for Forest’s whole time back in the league). Often he wouldn’t pick Hudson-Odoi, or he’d drop Elanga, by the end of the season though, he had figured out what his best team was.

If Forest can have a settled first choice team that plays together more often than not, they could really push on this season. There is potential for Forest to become real giant-killers this campaign, as they are electric on the counter attack.

Milenkovic should help with the set pieces, although one player can’t make all the difference. Set pieces are a major issue for Forest, last season they conceded 39 goals from open play, and 22 from set pieces, the most of any team in the league. The average number of goals conceded last year from set pieces throughout the league was around 10, so let’s say that hypothetically, Forest got those set piece goals conceded down to that average, they would have conceded 49 goals last season, which would have made them the 4th best defence in the league, only behind Liverpool, Man City and Arsenal.

If they can sort these issues out, Forest will be much better off for it, I don’t think we’ll see another stressful battle against relegation for Forest this season, and they’ll establish themselves as a mid-table Premier League team.

ONE TO WATCH: Danilo

He’s a fan favourite at Forest, his song is sung every time he get’s in on the act and he could be in for a big season. Danilo has shown flashes of the quality he possess in his time so far at Forest, yet he hasn’t put it together over a full season yet. He went a run of goal-scoring after his January arrival in the 2022/23 season, but last season he suffered a myriad of injuries, which hampered his consistency, by the end of the season, he established himself in the team under Nuno and if he can stay fit, he could play a major part for Forest this year.

He’s still only 23, so there is room to grow, he’s got *it, that indescribable ability to do the unthinkable, shown at it’s best by his goal against Brentford earlier this season, where the ball dropped out of the sky, on the edge of the area, he controlled it with his left knee, teeing it up for him to strike on his right foot (weaker foot by the way) and fired a sweet volley into the back of the net. He’s something special, and the world will see it this season.

14th: Bournemouth

Everyone doubted Gary O’Neil being sacked by Bournemouth before the start of last season, O’Neil did an incredible when he took over as manager following the sacking of Scott Parker just after the start of the 22/23 season, keeping Bournemouth in the League when they were everyone’s choice to go down. People continued to doubt that decision when Andoni Iraola got off to a terrible start as Bournemouth manager, it took until their tenth game of the season for Iraola to get his first Premier League win, in a 2-1 win against Burnley. From that point on, there was no looking for Bournemouth, from gameweek 10 to the end of the season, Bournemouth accrued the 6th most points of any team.

Bournemouth are a versatile team, they are aggressive in the high press, not giving the opposition time to breathe, that is a constant throughout their play. With the ball however, they can do different things. They often play risky, long balls, akin to Jurgen Klopp’s Liverpool team in order to regain the ball higher up the pitch, last season they attempted the second most long balls of any team in the League, with 78 per 90 minutes, only bettered by Everton, yet only 47% of those long balls were accurate, the 4th worst rate of any team in the League.

However, they are not just a long ball team, they are more than capable of playing the stereotypical Spanish possession style of football that we expected from Iraola. It will be interesting to see how Bournemouth evolve this season, and whether they move more away from the long balls as Iraola has more time to mould the squad into what he wants.

Bournemouth haven’t brought in too much new blood in the transfer window so far, they have completed the signings of Luis Sinisterra and Enes Unal, both of whom were on loan at the club already last season.

They have replaced the outgoing Lloyd Kelly with Dean Huijsen, a 19 year old centre back from Juventus. Huijsen will likely play second fiddle to Ilya Zarbanyi and Marco Senesi this season, but could prove to be a crucial part of their team in the next few years. Daniel Jebbison has also arrived on a free transfer from Sheffield United to increase depth in the centre-forward position.

That is where their strength really lies, their squad depth. They have quality players and quality backups in every position, creating intense competition for places. Don’t be surprised if they score many late goals this season with fresh legs making the difference. It’s no coincidence that Bournemouth’s best period of last season came around Christmas time, where fixture congestion is at it’s worst, whilst other club’s were struggling to maintain their levels playing a game every three days, and players were tiring, Bournemouth were able to rotate their side, without weakening themselves. If Justin Kluivert was fatigued, you could replace him with Antoine Semenyo, Dango Ouattara could come in for Luis Sinisterra, the list goes on.

It’s not all positive though, Dominic Solanke was their talisman last season, and with his move to Spurs, they will lose a vital part of their team, not only was Solanke crucial for his goals last year, but he led the press well, a quality which no doubt will have made him an attractive prospect for Ange Postecouglu, and a big loss for Bournemouth. They also were too open at the back last season, conceding 67 goals in the League, the 5th worst of any team.

This year Bournemouth will avoid the terrible start that they had at the start of Iraola’s reign, but if they will maintain the form which saw them be one of the best performers in the League throughout the mid-season is questionable. One other thing to look out for with Bournemouth is possible PSR issues. They have spent around £190 million in the past 12 months and have gained just £3 million back. They don’t have the biggest revenue, so I wonder if they might be in a little bit of trouble on that front.

ONE TO WATCH: Alex Scott

Signed last summer for around £20 million from Bristol City, Alex Scott is one of the most highly rated young midfielders in England, and this season should be the one where he realises that potential in the Premier League. His first season in a Bournemouth shirt was marred with injuries, and he failed to establish a regular place in the starting eleven. Part of the reason for that was questions over his out of possession work, which although doesn’t lack effort, sometimes his discipline is something to be left desired, and in an Iraola side, you need to be perfect out of possession. That will come with experience and maturity though, and there’s no doubt over his in possession qualities.

He is your typical small, socks down, press resistant midfielder that we see so often nowadays, and although he has thrived in attacking areas in his short career so far, I think that his long term evolution is to become a number 6, and this season could be the start of that. I wouldn’t be surprised if he has a great season, then moves on elsewhere, possibly with Iraola.