Squad Numbers

This is the nightmare. No-one ever wants to see their club in this position, yet it is inevitable. Relegation brings with it depression, manager sackings and saying “I actually enjoy winning every week in the Championship anyway”. In this final instalment of my Premier League preview and predictions, we dive into who will succumb to this fate this season:

18th: Southampton

Who would have thought it? After eight games of the Championship season, Southampton were languishing in 15th place, well below expectations, which had been high for them following their relegation from the Premier League the year prior. Yet, Russell Martin turned it around, and managed to guide Southampton to 4th in the League, securing a playoff spot, which they ended up winning, securing themselves a spot in the Premier League. Martin has rekindled the feel good factor around Southampton, after a difficult couple of years prior to his arrival, he speaks about his players glowingly, and that can only help bring a group together, and it feels as if they are really riding a wave as they return to the top flight.

However, that feel good factor may be difficult to keep going as they return to the Premier League. The top flight is a massive step up from the Championship, and it is very difficult to continue to play the style of football that Southampton did in the Championship. Across the entire of last season, Southampton averaged 65% possession of the ball. This will not happen again this season, and they will have to adapt to not having the ball as much.

For much of last season, they used a 4-3-3 system, and were completely focused on the in possession side of the game, this resulted in them being open at the back, conceding 63 goals across the season, making them the 14th best defence in the League, not what you would expect from a promoted side, especially one that was only relegated from the Premier League the season prior.

They have attempted to adapt though, in the playoff matches and in some of their pre-season games, they used a 3 at the back system, which could give them extra security. It’s good to see Russell Martin adapting, as throughout his career so far, he has been criticised for his stubbornness in tactical identity.

Don’t get me wrong, you have to have your principals that you stick to, any successful leader in any walk of life has that, but you have to have the ability to compromise as well, and change based on the situation that you find yourself in, that was the downfall of Burnley last season, they didn’t adapt, whereas Nottingham Forest did so when they returned the Premier League, they completely changed their style of play. Southampton will have to do so if they are to have any hope of staying up. It will take an adaptation period, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they have a difficult start to the season, but a strong end.

In the transfer window, Southampton haven’t gone down the route of the likes of Burnley, Nottingham Forest and Ipswich, they have largely focused on keeping their team together, adding some Premier League experience and a little bit of quality as well, it’s not a completely new team. Taylor Harwood-Bellis and Flynn Downes have joined the club on permanent deals following their loan spells at the club last year, both of which were crucial to their promotion bid. Southampton have added experience through the free transfers of Adam Lallana and Charlie Taylor.

The quality comes from Ben Brereton Diaz. Brereton Diaz is a well known player, signed from Villarreal, he was on loan at Sheffield United for the second half of last year, where he scored 6 goals in 14 appearances. He will add quality to their forward line, and will give them added flexibility as he can play on either wing or up front. They have also added to young, promising centre backs from the lower leagues in Ronnie Edwards and Nathan Wood.

ONE TO WATCH: Yukinari Sugawara

Signed from AZ Alkmaar, Sugawara has potential to thrive for Southampton this season, he is a 24 year old, high flying right back. His signing points towards Southampton playing a 3 at the back system, as he is very much an attacking fullback and there are questions about his defensive capabilities, he registered 4 goals and 7 assists last season in the Eredivisie, and is an astute signing who could thrive in the Premier League after being signed for just £6 million.

19th: Ipswich

It has been an incredible rise for Ipswich under Kieran Mckenna. When he came in, Ipswich were floundering in League One, he stabilised them, and in his first 2 full seasons at the club, he achieved back to back promotions. They have reached the promised land, but now they must face the damning reality. Their first two games back in the league? Liverpool at home and Man City away, a nice reintroduction to the top flight.

They were enthralling to watch last season, scoring more goals than any other team in the championship. However, this will be difficult to replicate in the Premier League. It’s a huge step up from the Championship, I’m happy for them to prove me wrong, but for Ipswich to stay up, they’ll have to do better than clubs with international level players.

Ipswich have made multiple signings already this summer, with Omari Hutchinson, Jacob Greaves, Arijanet Muric, Ben Johnson, Liam Delap and Connor Townsend coming through the door. Their first choice team looks strong on paper, but all of their players lack premier league experience, a lot of their players are talented, and could be great players, but are they good enough?

Teams that have stayed up in Premier League in recent years have added players that were proven to be good enough in the moment, that could elevate their team immediately, Fulham brought in Willian, Brentford brought in Christian Eriksen, Forest brought in Keylor Navas and Felipe. I haven’t quite seen that with Ipswich yet.

They are and adaptable team, and showed in the championship that they were capable of playing many different ways, they were free scoring, and dominated games, yet they didn’t dominate possession, averaging 53% possession across the season, compared to the likes of Southampton who averaged 65%.

They are riding a wave, momentum is with them and the fan base will be delighted from game 1 to game 38, no matter the results. The potential is there for them to survive and do well, Mckenna is a great coach, and they will be a well organised team with strong ideas of what they want to do. I just think that the level of the Premier League is so high, and it will be a step too many for them.

ONE TO WATCH: Arijanet Muric

Muric has been brought in to be the number one goalkeeper at Ipswich, he was backup to James Trafford for the majority of last season at Burnley, but got into the team at the end of the season, and shone, if you ignore the couple of frankly embarrassing errors that he made with his feet, he performed exceptionally. Muric had a save percentage of 81% last season, higher than the likes of Alisson, Ederson and Jordan Pickford. He’s only 24 years old, and with Ipswich likely to face many shots this season, he could really put his name into the limelight.

20th: Leicester

It’s been a frustrating couple of years for Leicester fans, first came relegation from the Premier League, in a season which was so critically misjudged with key players leaving and not being replaced. Then came all the optimism, Enzo Maresca came in to lead the promotion push, they started incredibly, building up a 12 point gap to 2nd place in the League Ipswich by gameweek 32, but then faltered, losing 7 of their final 14 games, almost double the amount of games they had lost in the first 32 games.

They managed to crawl over the line though, and secure automatic promotion to the Premier League, and for a short time, there was jubilation and excitement about what could come next. What did come next though, was pretty much the worst new imaginable, manager Enzo Maresca left for Chelsea, and the club were announced to be under investigation for breaking PSR, with a points deduction this season imminent.

The appointment of Steve Cooper is an interesting one, as he is completely different to Maresca, who was all about possession and from the Guardiola school of the coaching, whilst Cooper, in the Premier League at least has been a lot more pragmatic, and focused on defensive solidity, and then pace on the counter attack. Cooper may be a throwback to Ranieri days in that sense, although I don’t expect similar results.

Cooper is a people person, and was loved by his players at Nottingham Forest, so he wont have trouble getting the backing of the players, it’s just the fans he may struggle with. He built a special bond with the supporters at Nottingham Forest, and the thought of Cooper standing in the opposition dugout at the City Ground this season will bring a tear to the majority of of Forest fans eyes.

However, the context is widely different around Leicester, in Cooper’s first season at Forest, he had some bad runs of results, which would have seen any ordinary manager be sacked, but it was the backing he received from the fanbase which kept him in the job, which in itself came from the good memories that he had given them the year before in their promotion year, the journey that they had been on. That journey doesn’t exist with the Leicester supporters, who didn’t want Cooper to be their manager in the first place. They will get behind the team, no doubt about it, but the patience wont be there if results don’t go their way.

The transfer market has also been difficult for Leicester so far. They have lost their star player Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall to Chelsea for only £35 million, and Kelechi Iheanacho and Harry Souttar have also left on free transfers and loans respectively. They have made additions though.

They have signed Abdul Fatawu Issahaku on a permanent following his loan spell at the club from Sporting last season, Facundo Buonanotte has arrived on loan from Brighton as well. They have also acquired Bobby De Cordova-Reid on a free transfer from Fulham. It is strange that they are focusing on the wide areas in the market, as their wingers were one of their strongest assets last season, and Steve Cooper has historically played without wingers in his team. They have looked to strengthen in defence as well, 23 year old Caleb Okoli has arrived from Atalanta. The young midfielder Michael Golding, who mostly featured in youth football last year has arrived from Chelsea in a £6 million deal.

Premier League experience will now be the priority for the rest of the window, but their starting eleven is strong enough to compete in the Premier League: Hermansen, Pereira, Faes, Vestergaard, Justin, Winks, Ndidi, Soumare, Fatawu, Mavididi, Vardy. The level of the Premier League is so high though, and I’m not sure that this squad is ready to make that step up, with the threat of points deductions looming as well, I think that Leicester are almost dead certs for relegation, and Steve Cooper will not survive until the end of the season.

ONE TO WATCH: Jamie Vardy

Now, I know what you’re thinking, “Jamie Vardy? He’s about 40 years old, I though the One To Watch was for up and coming players?” Well, that’s understandable, but this one is for nostalgic reasons. Seeing Jamie Vardy back in the Premier League is one for nostalgia, thinking back to the year that Leicester won the League, and how he and Riyad Mahrez tore up the League on the counter attack, and subsequently how he scored 15+ goals for 5 consecutive years. He is 37 now, and perhaps doesn’t have the same blistering pace that he has in his prime, but he scored 18 goals in 19 starts in the Championship last season, and it will be fun to see him play in the Premier League for perhaps one last team. One of the most underrated strikers of his generation, Jamie Vardy, in the counter-attacking style of Steve Cooper, is one to watch this season.